Refinery Shortage Keeps Diesel at Record Highs

Contributors: Ari Page and Kayla Page  |  4 min read

Crude oil fell more than 3% on Monday, and diesel still set a record at $6.51 a gallon, because the shortage is in refining capacity rather than in oil itself.

Fleet owners paid a record $6.51 a gallon for diesel on Monday, September 21, 2026, up from $6.23 a week earlier and $3.70 a gallon a year ago, according to AAA. That works out to roughly 37 to 44 cents a mile in added cost for truckers since late February, according to FTR Transportation Intelligence.

Crude oil moved the other way. U.S. crude fell more than 3% to about $97 a barrel on Monday, its fourth straight daily decline, as Middle East shipments held up despite a weekend strike on Saudi Arabia claimed by Houthi forces.

Two prices moving in opposite directions points to where the shortage actually sits. Crude is the raw oil. Diesel is what comes out of a refinery, and refineries are the bottleneck. Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries and Russia’s diesel export ban have pulled fuel out of the global market, while U.S. refiners are already running flat out.

Sources: AAA, Gulf Oil, and FTR Transportation Intelligence via Daily Caller News Foundation

For trucking companies, contractors, delivery businesses, and other operators that depend on diesel vehicles or equipment, that disconnect turns into a cash flow problem. Fuel has to be bought immediately, while customers may not pay invoices for weeks.

The pressure also varies by market, with diesel prices differing by more than $2 a gallon between some states. For businesses that burn diesel every day, the question is no longer when crude will fall. It is whether refining capacity recovers before winter demand arrives.

Why Cheaper Crude Is Not Reaching the Pump

Diesel and crude usually move together, and that link has broken this year. Retail diesel sits about 6% below its 2026 high even though West Texas Intermediate crude has fallen four times as much from its own peak.

Refining is the reason. U.S. inventories of ultra-low sulfur distillate, the base stock for diesel, are 9% below where they stood at the same point in 2022, according to FTR Transportation Intelligence. Refiners have no room to catch up, and pushing plants harder raises the odds of a breakdown that would tighten supply further.

Who Absorbs the Cost and Who Passes It On

The burden is not landing evenly. Larger carriers may have fuel purchasing agreements and surcharge structures that help offset rising diesel costs. Smaller operators often have fewer tools available, leaving them to absorb more of the increase or pass it along to customers.

Contractors and mobile service trades face the same choice on a slower clock. Jobs bid weeks ago may have been priced around lower fuel costs, meaning each service call can now carry a higher operating cost than originally estimated. Freight operators without surcharge agreements carry the added 37 to 44 cents a mile until contracts come up for renewal.

Timing works against all of them. The U.S. normally builds distillate inventory ahead of Northeast and Midwest heating oil season and fall harvest demand from farm equipment, and that build is not happening this year.

What Could Change the Picture

Political pressure is building. Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry has called for a 90-day ban on U.S. diesel exports, and President Trump has urged Ukraine to stop striking Russian refineries, saying the attacks are hurting the world. An export ban carries its own risk. Garrett Golding of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas said surging global diesel prices would boomerang back onto the East Coast, meaning declines in Texas could be offset by spikes in New York.

Interest rates create a second pressure point. The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point in September as policymakers responded to persistent inflation, with elevated energy costs among the pressures affecting the broader price environment. Higher rates can add to financing costs for trucks, equipment, and other business purchases.

Fleet owners watching for relief should watch refinery runs and distillate inventories rather than the price of crude. Until those recover, a falling barrel price will not show up in the fuel bill. Record diesel, higher loan payments, and customer invoices that pay in 30 or 60 days leave fleet owners covering the gap out of pocket. Fuel gets bought today while the revenue that covers it arrives weeks later.

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About the Author

Ari Page is the Founder and CEO of Fund&Grow, a business credit consulting company he started in 2007. Over nearly two decades, he has helped more than 35,000 entrepreneurs secure over $2.1 billion in total business funding. His expertise in business credit cards has made him a trusted resource for entrepreneurs, real estate investors, and small business owners across the country. He is the author of "Fund&Grow: Easy & Affordable Ways to Get Money for Your Business" and regularly shares insight on entrepreneurship, business strategy, and what it actually takes to build a financially resilient business.

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